5th Region Girls Basketball Tournament 2025 Outlook

SCORES
Bardstown 56, Adair County 49
Central Hardin 58, Green County 46

Tournament Outlook

• Favorites: Elizabethtown and Taylor County, with high RPIs (0.62606 and 0.63202) and strong win records, are likely to advance deep.
• Contenders: Green County and Central Hardin, with solid records and RPIs above 0.56, could challenge the top teams.
• Dark Horses: Adair County and Nelson County have the talent to upset higher seeds if their key players perform.
• Underdogs: Bardstown and Hart County face tough matchups and will need exceptional performances to progress.

Top Players in the Tournament

1. Malia Courtney (Elizabethtown, #3, Guard)

• Stats: 22.4 PPG, 627 total points, 159 2PT FG, 79 3PT FG, 72 FT (28 games)
• Strengths: The tournament’s highest scorer, Malia is a dynamic guard with exceptional versatility. She leads with 79 made 3-pointers (highest among top players) and 159 2-point field goals, showcasing her ability to score from anywhere. Her efficiency powers Elizabethtown’s top offense (1928 points).
• Tournament Impact: With Elizabethtown’s strong RPI (0.62606) and 23-6 record, Malia’s scoring ability could dominate weaker defenses like Hart County’s (1666 points allowed). She’s a primary reason Elizabethtown is a tournament favorite.

2. Juliana Stith (Central Hardin, #11, Guard)

• Stats: 20.8 PPG, 561 total points, 138 2PT FG, 56 3PT FG, 117 FT (27 games)
• Strengths: Stith is a high-volume scorer with a knack for getting to the line (117 FT made, highest among top players). Her balanced attack (138 2PT, 56 3PT) makes her a constant threat. She anchors Central Hardin’s offense (1465 points).
• Tournament Impact: Facing Green County’s stout defense (1302 points allowed), Stith’s ability to draw fouls and score in clutch moments could keep Central Hardin competitive. Her performance is critical for an upset bid.

3. Ella Buckman (Bardstown, #13, Guard, Sr.)

• Stats: 18.8 PPG, 527 total points, 102 2PT FG, 79 3PT FG, 86 FT (28 games)
• Strengths: Buckman ties Malia Courtney for the most 3-pointers made (79) and adds strong inside scoring (102 2PT). Her scoring versatility and consistency (18.8 PPG) drive Bardstown’s offense (1534 points).
• Tournament Impact: Against Adair County’s weaker 3-point defense (27.8%), Buckman’s long-range shooting could be decisive. She’s Bardstown’s best chance to advance past a balanced Adair County team.

4. Kennedy Deener (Taylor County, #25, Guard)

• Stats: 17.8 PPG, 463 total points, 108 2PT FG, 34 3PT FG, 145 FT (26 games)
• Strengths: Deener leads with 145 free throws made, showcasing her ability to attack and draw contact. Her 17.8 PPG fuels Taylor County’s potent offense (1702 points) and high FT% (70.5%).
• Tournament Impact: Facing Nelson County, whom Taylor split games with, Deener’s free-throw accuracy and scoring could tip a close game. She’s key to Taylor County’s high RPI (0.63202) and contender status.

5. Kinzlee Akin (Adair County, #20, Guard, Jr.)

• Stats: 15.5 PPG, 450 total points, 124 2PT FG, 45 3PT FG, 67 FT (29 games)
• Strengths: Akin is a versatile scorer with the highest 2-point field goals (124) among top players, complemented by 45 3-pointers. She leads Adair County’s balanced attack (1636 points) and rebounding (915).
• Tournament Impact: Against Bardstown’s weaker rebounding (708), Akin’s inside-out scoring could exploit mismatches. She’s Adair County’s linchpin for an upset.

6. Nora Simpson (Nelson County, #33, Guard/Forward)

• Stats: 15.6 PPG, 391 total points, 132 2PT FG, 12 3PT FG, 91 FT (25 games)
• Strengths: Simpson excels inside with 132 2-point field goals (second only to Malia Courtney’s 159) and adds 91 free throws. Her physicality drives Nelson County’s offense (1625 points).
• Tournament Impact: Facing Taylor County’s strong FT% (70.5%), Simpson’s interior scoring and rebounding (959 team total) could keep Nelson competitive, especially after their 76-61 win over Taylor earlier.

7. Kaylynn Brockman (Green County, #31, Forward/Guard)

• Stats: 12.5 PPG, 362 total points, 137 2PT FG, 6 3PT FG, 70 FT (29 games)
• Strengths: Brockman is a dominant inside scorer (137 2PT FG, third among top players) and key to Green County’s efficient offense (40.4% FG) and defense (1302 points allowed).
• Tournament Impact: Against Central Hardin’s Juliana Stith, Brockman’s physical presence could neutralize their scoring threat, as seen in Green’s 41-37 win earlier. She’s vital to Green County’s contender status (0.59324 RPI).

8. Reese Bardin (Adair County, #5, Guard, Sr.)

• Stats: 12.5 PPG, 362 total points, 101 2PT FG, 38 3PT FG, 46 FT (29 games)
• Strengths: Bardin is a reliable secondary scorer with 38 3-pointers and 101 2-point field goals. She complements Akin to give Adair County depth (1636 points).
• Tournament Impact: Her outside shooting could stretch Bardstown’s defense, which relies on Buckman’s 3-point prowess. Bardin’s consistency bolsters Adair’s upset potential.

9. Mega Simpson (Nelson County, #42, Forward)

• Stats: 12.3 PPG, 345 total points, 148 2PT FG, 2 3PT FG, 43 FT (28 games)
• Strengths: Simpson leads all players with 148 2-point field goals, dominating the paint. Her scoring inside supports Nelson County’s balanced attack (1625 points).
• Tournament Impact: Against Taylor County’s rebounding strength (960), Simpson’s interior dominance could replicate Nelson’s 76-61 win. She’s a key counter to Taylor’s Kennedy Jackson.

10. Chloe Fortner (Green County, #24, Guard/Forward)

• Stats: 11.9 PPG, 345 total points, 96 2PT FG, 21 3PT FG, 90 FT (29 games)
• Strengths: Fortner’s 90 free throws and balanced scoring (96 2PT, 21 3PT) make her a clutch performer. She bolsters Green County’s high FT% (66.7%) and defense.
• Tournament Impact: Her free-throw accuracy could be decisive against Central Hardin’s physical play. Fortner’s versatility supports Green’s 23-6 record.

Honorable Mention: Addison Devore (Hart County, #30, Forward)

• Stats: 11.1 PPG, 321 total points, 102 2PT FG, 2 3PT FG, 111 FT (29 games)
• Strengths: Devore’s 111 free throws (second only to Deener) and 102 2-point field goals provide Hart County’s lone bright spot (1302 points).
• Tournament Impact: Facing Elizabethtown’s elite offense, Devore’s scoring keeps Hart County from being completely outmatched, but her team’s 5-25 record limits her influence.

Overview Insights

• Scoring Leaders: Malia Courtney (22.4 PPG), Juliana Stith (20.8 PPG), and Ella Buckman (18.8 PPG) are the tournament’s top scorers, driving their teams’ offenses with high volume and efficiency.
• Inside Dominance: Mega Simpson (148 2PT FG), Kaylynn Brockman (137 2PT FG), and Nora Simpson (132 2PT FG) excel in the paint, giving their teams physical edges.
• 3-Point Threats: Courtney and Buckman (79 3PT each) lead the long-range attack, with Akin (45) and Bardin (38) adding depth for Adair County.
• Free-Throw Standouts: Kennedy Deener (145 FT), Juliana Stith (117 FT), and Addison Devore (111 FT) could decide close games with their accuracy.
• Team Impact: Players from top RPI teams (Taylor County, Elizabethtown, Green County) like Deener, Courtney, and Brockman are poised to shine, while Buckman and Stith could lift Bardstown and Central Hardin to upsets.

Bardstown (14-14, RPI: 0.52859)

• Overview: Bardstown has had an even season with a 14-14 record. They scored 1534 points while allowing 1390, showing a balanced but not dominant performance. Their RPI ranks them mid-tier in the region.
• Strengths: Strong individual scoring from Ella Buckman (18.8 PPG) and Rowan Walls (10.7 PPG). They have a decent 3-point shooting percentage (31.9%).

Schedule Highlights: Wins against Taylor County (77-70) and Adair County (52-51), but losses to stronger teams like Elizabethtown (86-51) and Bethlehem (66-55) indicate inconsistency.

Adair County (17-12, RPI: 0.521)

• Overview: Adair County finished with a respectable 17-12 record, scoring 1636 points and allowing 1584. Their RPI places them just below Bardstown, suggesting a competitive but not top-tier team.
• Strengths: Balanced scoring led by Kinzlee Akin (15.5 PPG), Reese Bardin (12.5 PPG), and Ila Loy (10.3 PPG). They excel in field goal percentage (40.9%).

Schedule Highlights: Key wins include Green County (57-47) and Marion County (71-42), but losses to Taylor County (49-40) and Elizabethtown (86-51) show struggles against elite teams.

Green County (23-6, RPI: 0.59324)

• Overview: Green County is a strong contender with a 23-6 record, scoring 1655 points and allowing 1302. Their RPI ranks them fourth in the region, indicating a solid season.
• Strengths: Led by Kaylynn Brockman (12.5 PPG) and Chloe Fortner (11.9 PPG), they have a high free-throw percentage (66.7%) and a stingy defense.

Schedule Highlights: Dominated Hart County (67-34 twice) and beat Central Hardin (41-37), but lost to Elizabethtown (86-51) and Taylor County (51-47).

Central Hardin (19-9, RPI: 0.5683)

• Overview: Central Hardin posted a 19-9 record, scoring 1465 points and allowing 1278. Their RPI ranks them fifth, showing they’re a competitive team with a strong defense.
• Strengths: Juliana Stith (20.8 PPG) leads a potent offense, supported by Kaitlyn Huggins (9.9 PPG). They have a high free-throw percentage (67.9%).

Schedule Highlights: Beat Elizabethtown (47-45 in overtime) and Taylor County (47-45), but lost to Green County (41-37) and Bethlehem (66-60).

Elizabethtown (23-6, RPI: 0.62606)

• Overview: Elizabethtown is a top team with a 23-6 record, scoring 1928 points and allowing 1423. Their RPI ranks them third, marking them as a favorite.
• Strengths: Exceptional scoring from Malia Courtney (22.4 PPG) and Miyah Courtney (14.3 PPG), with a high field goal percentage (44.5%).

Schedule Highlights: Dominant wins over Green County (86-51), Central Hardin (73-44), and Taylor County (86-51), with losses to strong teams like Assumption (71-35).

Hart County (5-25, RPI: 0.3124)

• Overview: Hart County struggled with a 5-25 record, scoring 1302 points and allowing 1666. Their low RPI ranks them near the bottom, indicating a challenging season.
• Strengths: Addison Devore (11.1 PPG) and Kennedy Reynolds (9.7 PPG) provide some scoring, but the team lacks depth.

Schedule Highlights: Wins against Caverna (72-30) and Washington County (54-53), but heavy losses to Green County (67-34 twice) and Elizabethtown (73-44).

Taylor County (21-8, RPI: 0.63202)

• Overview: Taylor County is a strong team with a 21-8 record, scoring 1702 points and allowing 1416. Their RPI ranks them second, making them a top contender.
• Strengths: Kennedy Deener (17.8 PPG) and Kennedy Jackson (10.5 PPG) lead a balanced attack with a high free-throw percentage (70.5%).

Schedule Highlights: Beat Bardstown (77-70) and Adair County (49-40), but lost to Elizabethtown (86-51) and Central Hardin (47-45).

Nelson County (18-11, RPI: 0.55432)

• Overview: Nelson County finished with an 18-11 record, scoring 1625 points and allowing 1390. Their RPI places them sixth, showing a solid but not elite season.
• Strengths: Nora Simpson (15.6 PPG) and Mega Simpson (12.3 PPG) anchor the offense, with a decent free-throw percentage (63.7%).

Schedule Highlights: Wins over Central Hardin (58-55) and Taylor County (76-61), but losses to Bardstown (70-51) and Elizabethtown (73-44).

1. Bardstown vs. Adair County (March 3, 6:00 PM)

Team Statistics

• Bardstown (14-14):
  • RPI: 0.52859 (8th in region)
  • Points Scored/Allowed: 1534 / 1390
  • FG%: 39.4%, 3PT%: 31.9%, FT%: 61.6%
  • Rebounds: 708
• Adair County (17-12):
  • RPI: 0.521 (9th in region)
  • Points Scored/Allowed: 1636 / 1584
  • FG%: 40.9%, 3PT%: 27.8%, FT%: 62.2%
  • Rebounds: 915

Strengths and Weaknesses

• Bardstown:
  • Strengths: Strong 3-point shooting (31.9%, 177 made), led by Ella Buckman (79 3PT made). Balanced scoring with multiple contributors.
  • Weaknesses: Lower rebounding total (708) suggests weakness on the boards. Inconsistent season (14-14) shows vulnerability against stronger teams.
• Adair County:
  • Strengths: High field goal percentage (40.9%) and rebounding (915) indicate efficiency and control of the glass. Depth with three double-digit scorers.
  • Weaknesses: Lower 3-point percentage (27.8%) limits outside threat. Defense allows more points (1584) than Bardstown’s (1390).

Key Players

• Bardstown:
  • Ella Buckman (#13, G, Sr.): 18.8 PPG, 79 3PT made, 86 FT made. Elite scorer and long-range shooter.
  • Rowan Walls (#22, G, Sr.): 10.7 PPG, 91 FT made. Clutch free-throw shooter and secondary scoring option.
• Adair County:
  • Kinzlee Akin (#20, G, Jr.): 15.5 PPG, 45 3PT made. Versatile scorer who can stretch the floor.
  • Reese Bardin (#5, G, Sr.): 12.5 PPG, 38 3PT made. Reliable second option with outside shooting.

Previous Matchups

• Result: None recorded in the regular season. This is their first meeting.

Analysis

• Bardstown’s edge lies in 3-point shooting, with Buckman potentially exploiting Adair County’s weaker perimeter defense. Adair County’s rebounding advantage (915 vs. 708) and slightly better FG% could dominate inside. RPI is close (0.52859 vs. 0.521), suggesting a tight game. Adair County’s 17-12 record vs. Bardstown’s 14-14 gives them a slight momentum edge.

2. Green County vs. Central Hardin (March 3, 8:00 PM)

Team Statistics

• Green County (23-6):
  • RPI: 0.59324 (4th in region)
  • Points Scored/Allowed: 1655 / 1302
  • FG%: 40.4%, 3PT%: 26.6%, FT%: 66.7%
  • Rebounds: 868
• Central Hardin (19-9):
  • RPI: 0.5683 (5th in region)
  • Points Scored/Allowed: 1465 / 1278
  • FG%: 38.4%, 3PT%: 27.7%, FT%: 67.9%
  • Rebounds: 910

Strengths and Weaknesses

• Green County:
  • Strengths: Strong record (23-6) and defense (1302 allowed). High FT% (66.7%) helps in close games.
  • Weaknesses: Low 3PT% (26.6%, 100 made) limits outside scoring. Slightly fewer rebounds (868) than Central Hardin.
• Central Hardin:
  • Strengths: Excellent defense (1278 allowed) and rebounding (910). High FT% (67.9%) and balanced scoring.
  • Weaknesses: Lower FG% (38.4%) suggests less efficiency. Reliant on Juliana Stith for scoring.

Key Players

• Green County:
  • Kaylynn Brockman (#31, F/G): 12.5 PPG, 137 2PT made. Dominant inside presence.
  • Chloe Fortner (#24, G/F): 11.9 PPG, 90 FT made. Reliable scorer and free-throw shooter.
• Central Hardin:
  • Juliana Stith (#11, G): 20.8 PPG, 56 3PT made, 117 FT made. Elite all-around scorer.
  • Kaitlyn Huggins (#32, F): 9.9 PPG, 111 2PT made. Strong interior complement to Stith.

Previous Matchups

• Date: December 27, 2024
• Result: Green County won, 41 – 37 (at South Warren)
• Details: A close game where Green County’s defense held Central Hardin’s potent offense to 37 points, overcoming Stith’s scoring threat.

Analysis

• Green County’s prior win (41-37) and higher RPI (0.59324 vs. 0.5683) give them an edge. Their defense could again neutralize Stith, though Central Hardin’s rebounding (910 vs. 868) might keep it close. Green County’s lack of 3-point shooting could be exploited if Central Hardin’s perimeter game (27.7%) heats up. Expect a low-scoring, physical battle.

3. Elizabethtown vs. Hart County (March 4, 6:00 PM)

Team Statistics

• Elizabethtown (23-6):
  • RPI: 0.62606 (3rd in region)
  • Points Scored/Allowed: 1928 / 1423
  • FG%: 44.5%, 3PT%: 33.7%, FT%: 63.3%
  • Rebounds: 898
• Hart County (5-25):
  • RPI: 0.3124 (16th in region)
  • Points Scored/Allowed: 1302 / 1666
  • FG%: 36.0%, 3PT%: 23.7%, FT%: 56.2%
  • Rebounds: 878

Strengths and Weaknesses

• Elizabethtown:
  • Strengths: High FG% (44.5%) and scoring (1928 points). Elite offense with strong 3PT% (33.7%).
  • Weaknesses: Slightly lower FT% (63.3%) and rebounding (898) than some peers.
• Hart County:
  • Strengths: Decent rebounding (878) keeps them in games. Addison Devore provides consistent scoring.
  • Weaknesses: Poor record (5-25), low FG% (36.0%), and terrible defense (1666 allowed). Weak FT% (56.2%).

Key Players

• Elizabethtown:
  • Malia Courtney (#3, G): 22.4 PPG, 79 3PT made. Dynamic scorer and playmaker.
  • Miyah Courtney (#2, G): 14.3 PPG, 55 3PT made. Lethal secondary threat.
• Hart County:
  • Addison Devore (#30, F): 11.1 PPG, 102 2PT made. Main scoring option inside.
  • Kennedy Reynolds (#24, G): 9.7 PPG, 17 3PT made. Best outside shooter.

Previous Matchups

• Date: December 17, 2024
• Result: Elizabethtown won, 73 – 44 (at Hart County)
• Details: Elizabethtown’s offense overwhelmed Hart County’s defense, with a 29-point margin reflecting their dominance.

Analysis

• Elizabethtown’s superior RPI (0.62606 vs. 0.3124), scoring, and prior 73-44 win make them heavy favorites. Their high FG% and 3-point shooting should exploit Hart County’s porous defense. Hart County’s rebounding might keep them close early, but their low FT% and lack of depth will likely lead to another blowout.

4. Taylor County vs. Nelson County (March 4, 8:00 PM)

Team Statistics

• Taylor County (21-8):
  • RPI: 0.63202 (2nd in region)
  • Points Scored/Allowed: 1702 / 1416
  • FG%: 40.3%, 3PT%: 34.3%, FT%: 70.5%
  • Rebounds: 960
• Nelson County (18-11):
  • RPI: 0.55432 (6th in region)
  • Points Scored/Allowed: 1625 / 1390
  • FG%: 40.1%, 3PT%: 27.8%, FT%: 63.7%
  • Rebounds: 959

Strengths and Weaknesses

• Taylor County:
  • Strengths: High RPI (0.63202), strong FT% (70.5%), and 3PT% (34.3%). Excellent rebounding (960).
  • Weaknesses: Defense allows slightly more points (1416) than Nelson County’s (1390). Reliant on Kennedy Deener.
• Nelson County:
  • Strengths: Balanced scoring with Nora Simpson and Mega Simpson. Solid rebounding (959) and defense.
  • Weaknesses: Lower 3PT% (27.8%) limits outside threat. Slightly lower RPI (0.55432) and FT% (63.7%).

Key Players

• Taylor County:
  • Kennedy Deener (#25, G): 17.8 PPG, 34 3PT made, 145 FT made. Elite scorer and free-throw shooter.
  • Kennedy Jackson (#22, F/C): 10.5 PPG, 105 FT made. Strong inside presence.
• Nelson County:
  • Nora Simpson (#33, G/F): 15.6 PPG, 91 FT made. Leading scorer with versatility.
  • Mega Simpson (#42, F): 12.3 PPG, 148 2PT made. Dominant in the paint.

Previous Matchups

• Game 1: December 6, 2024
  • Result: Taylor County won, 54 – 38 (at Taylor County)
  • Details: Taylor County’s defense held Nelson County to 38 points, showcasing their ability to stifle scoring.
• Game 2: January 4, 2025
  • Result: Nelson County won, 76 – 61 (at Nelson County)
  • Details: Nelson County’s offense erupted for 76 points, overcoming Taylor County’s typically strong play.

Analysis

• Taylor County’s higher RPI (0.63202 vs. 0.55432) and better 3PT% give them an edge, but Nelson County’s split results (1-1) show they can compete. Taylor County’s FT% (70.5%) could be decisive in a close game, while Nelson County’s rebounding and interior scoring (Mega Simpson) might challenge Taylor’s defense. The neutral site favors Taylor County slightly due to their earlier road win, but Nelson County’s home upset proves they’re dangerous.

Overall Tournament Insights

• Bardstown vs. Adair County: A toss-up with no prior matchup; Adair’s rebounding vs. Bardstown’s 3-point shooting will be key.
• Green County vs. Central Hardin: Green County’s prior win and defense give them a slight advantage in a defensive struggle.
• Elizabethtown vs. Hart County: Elizabethtown’s dominance in their previous meeting and superior stats make this a likely blowout.
• Taylor County vs. Nelson County: Taylor County’s consistency and RPI edge them out, but Nelson County’s upset potential keeps it competitive